
Modeling is an imprecise science, but the Modeling Hub brings together many of the the top disease modelers around the country, doing their best to look far down the road and make sense of a very unpredictable, complicated pandemic that's thrown one curve ball after another. is projected to reach a cumulative total of more than 780,000 deaths by March. Even in this optimistic scenario, the U.S. Getting everyone who is eligible vaccinated is still key to preventing further deaths.

Natalie Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at Emory University, notes that even though we may see a decline this fall, we will still see "a lot of cases and deaths." So there are less people out there to infect." The virus is still fighting back, he says, but "immunity always wins out eventually."īut transmission is still very high and will remain so for a while, so precautions are still called for until new infections come down to moderate levels. The virus has eaten up the susceptible people.
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"The biggest driver is immunity," he explains. Lessler thinks that at this point there's enough immunity in this country from a combination of enough people getting vaccinated and enough people having been exposed to the virus. But I think these projections show us there is a light at the end of the tunnel," he says. And so maybe I just need to stop worrying about it and take risks. "I think a lot of people have been tending to think that with this surge, it just is never going to get better. He's hopeful that the most optimistic scenario is the most likely. But Lessler emphasizes this is very hypothetical. If it does, a bleaker scenario from the Modeling Hub projects far worse numbers: just below 50,000 cases a day by next March. doesn't get hit with a new variant that's even more contagious than delta. In that case, the combo model forecasts that new infections would slowly, but fairly continuously, drop from about 140,000 today now to about 9,000 a day by March.ĭeaths from COVID-19 would fall from about 1,500 a day now to fewer than 100 a day by March 2022.Ĭoronavirus By The Numbers Where Are Hospitals Overwhelmed By COVID-19 Patients? Look Up Your StateĪnother caveat: This scenario assumes that the U.S. The most likely scenario, says Lessler, is that children do get vaccinated and no super-spreading variant emerges.

The modelers developed four potential scenarios, taking into account whether or not childhood vaccinations take off and whether a more infectious new variant should emerge. "But I do think that the trajectory is towards improvement for most of the country," he says. "Any of us who have been following this closely, given what happened with delta, are going to be really cautious about too much optimism," says Justin Lessler at the University of North Carolina, who helps run the hub.

For its latest update, which it released Wednesday, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub combined nine different mathematical models from different research groups to get an outlook for the pandemic for the next six months.
